By Jennifer Chang    Photo：CANVA

The United States has temporarily postponed plans to impose tariffs on a number of countries, bringing some relief to nations like Japan (24%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and EU member states (20%). However, at the same time, the U.S. has escalated its trade war with China.  In addition, the U.S. is set to end the de minimis exemption for Chinese e-commerce parcels in May. Over the past few years, Chinese e-commerce shipments have been a major driver of growth in the air cargo market.  The air freight industry is closely monitoring these developments. Continued fluctuations in freight rates are making it difficult for businesses to formulate response strategies. If tariffs lead to higher product prices and consequently lower consumer demand, air cargo rates may decline as a result.

In February of this year, the United States attempted to revoke a policy exemption that allowed packages valued under $800 to enter the country duty-free and with minimal customs inspection. However, due to an apparent lack of sufficient systems to handle the millions of packages arriving daily from China, the U.S. was forced to postpone the plan. Nevertheless, the White House recently announced that the exemption for packages from China will be lifted starting May 2. Packages sent through the international postal network and those shipped via other methods will be subject to different tariff rules. The White House stated: “Imported goods shipped by means other than the international postal network, if valued at or below $800 and meeting the de minimis exemption criteria, will be subject to all applicable duties and must follow the appropriate entry and payment procedures.” “All shipments sent through the international postal network that are valued at or below $800 and meet the de minimis exemption criteria will be subject to a duty of 30% of their value or $25 per item—whichever is higher (increasing to $50 per item after June 1, 2025).”

The recent indecisiveness in U.S. tariff policy is creating significant uncertainty for the global economy and supply chains. As analysts have pointed out, these measures not only disrupt markets and increase the risk of an economic downturn, but also plunge supply chains into unprecedented chaos. Businesses are struggling to discern whether the underlying intent is trade protectionism or the removal of trade barriers—and whether these policies are long-term strategies or merely short-term fixes. The frequent changes in tariff policy make it difficult for companies to plan ahead, fueling pessimism across the global economy and leading to lowered expectations for U.S. economic growth. This tariff war is quietly overturning the traditional logic of global retail supply chains. In the past, “cost reduction” was the guiding principle for nearly every business in supply chain management. Companies would unhesitatingly direct their resources to locations with lower production costs, abundant labor, and more efficient logistics. This challenge serves as a series of wake-up calls: the stability and resilience of the supply chain may now be more important than the cost of goods.

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