Will the shipping price increase in mid-August be a short-term phenomenon?

By Vincent Wen Photo:CANVA
Since May this year, due to the influence of various market factors, shipping companies have taken the opportunity to raise shipping prices.
However, with insufficient demand for goods in the market, most importers are still depleting their existing inventory and are more willing to wait for shipping prices to drop.
After experiencing a peak freight rate of nearly $9,000 in July, two major factors have led to four consecutive declines in container freight rates.
The first is the easing of the drought at the Panama Canal, and the second is the increase in new ships (a report indicates that new ship deliveries set a new record in the first half of 2024, with shipyards delivering a total of 264 vessels, with a total capacity of 1.6 million TEUs).
However, amid the Middle East war situation, shipping companies announced that prices will rise again starting from August 15.
According to the information we received from shipping companies, it is expected that the rates from Asia to the West Coast of the United States will increase by about $1,400, while rates to the East Coast may remain unchanged.
Given the still low market demand, our industry believes that this is a one-time increase and that prices will likely drop again afterward.
There are reports that a strike may occur on the East Coast in October, with the dockworkers' union seeking an 80% wage increase. With such high demands, there is a good chance it will be rejected, which could make the strike more likely.
The impact of the strike on freight rates may begin to be felt in late September, and we will provide further updates in the future.
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