By Richie Lin     Photo：Paparazzi Ratzfatzzi

During the last two weeks of 2022, there are rumors in the market saying that shipping lines will announce GRI (General Rate Increase) at the first week of 2023 to increase the rate for a small peak season before Chinese New Year holidays. They even sent this message to the news media to create an atmosphere of space shortage after Chinese government release the strict zero tolerance policy and the logistics in China would become more and more prosperous. However, the ever-climbing covid-19 cases across China have caused factories serious shortage of labors. Because many factories faced 50% or even 70% shortage of labors, they are forced to turn down the production and send workers to go home for Chinese New Year holidays even at the first week of 2023. Huge amounts of Covid-19 cases in China seem like adding insult to injury to worsen the worldwide economy. When worldwide economy was jeopardized by war between Russia and Ukraine, inflation caused by high energy price and high transportation cost, everybody was hoping China can be a white knight to save the world economy as soon as Chinese consumers can go out buying products freely. But the real situations are totally different from market’s expectations. Shipping lines have planned for a while to use the blank sailings for not only keeping the rate from going down but also increasing the rate when the space demand can surpass space supply. They have earned tremendous fortunes since the end of 2020 till the third quarter of 2022. They would rather let vessels anchor in the open sea and also pay the wages of sailors than bring all vessels into operation to drive down the rate further. Number one rule of economy is the prices caused by negative correlation between supply and demand. When something’s supply is higher than demand, the price of it will be going down as much as possible. Therefore, shipping lines were hoping the blank sailings and small peak season before Chinese New Year can wok together to increase the rate again. However, too many Covid-19 cases have shatter the dreams of shipping lines because many factories decide to let workers go back to their hometown earlier under the pressure of being affected by virus and less orders. So at the end, shipping lines extend their rate from week 52 of 2022 to week 1 of 2023.

FCL market rate reference in week 1:

• Asia main ports to USAWC USD 1800~2000 per 40GP; 
• Asia main ports to USAEC USD 3500~4000 per 40GP; 
• Asia main ports for IPI points of USA is USD 4000~5000 per 40GP. 
• Asia main ports to Europe base ports and West Mediterranean: USD 2500~3500 per 40GP.

Airfreight market rate in Week 1:

Airfreight rate might increase abruptly without further notice. The following market rate for your reference. 

• PVG/SZX/HKG/TPE to LAX USD 4.3/kg, 
• PVG/SZX/HKG/TPE to ORD USD 4.4/kg, 
• PVG/SZX/HKG/TPE to JFK USD 5.0/kg.

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