By Arthur Chen      Photo：Jean van der Meulen

Ocean freight is expected to return to normal in the second half of 2022. However, cargo owners expect to sane freight rates before 2019, the possibility is negative.

In the Asian to American shipping market in December, shipping lines adopted more and more blank sailings, especially the west coast routes. At the same time, carriers are actively skipping some ports in Asia and the United States to reset normal shipping schedules. According to Sea-Intelligence data, the number of blank voyages from Asia to the US/West coast is increasing significantly. In the first nine months of this year, it reached an average of 7.7 voyages per week, and the 39-50 week has increased to an average of 13 voyages per week. All ports on the West Coast of the United States, including the Port of Los Angeles/Long Beach, are still experiencing delays and congestion due to labor shortages, insufficient chassis, and warehouse vacancies. There is still a long queue of container ships outside the port. According to the latest information, there are 66 ships waiting to be berthed off the waters of Los Angeles, and 29 ships are at berths. The average waiting time for ships in the Port of Los Angeles has increased to 20.6 days. According to relevant information. ONE’s sailing schedules have updated on December 2nd that 29 transpacific sailings originally scheduled to depart from Asian ports in December have be cancelled in which 22 sailings to the west coast of the United States, including the Port of Vancouver and the Port of Tacoma. In contrast, there were 20 suspensions in November and October. In addition, ONE will cancel 9 trans-Pacific voyages in January next year. We already impressed that as time gets closer, carriers are likely to announce more blank voyages.

In addition to the U.S. line, it is learned from shipping news that the three major ocean alliances have skipped 383 times in the Far East to Europe routes within 5 months. As European ports are deeply affected by congestion, major shipping companies have skipped total of 383 times on 18 routes in the past five months, which is close to a quarter of their total voyages. The largest container ports from Felixstowe in the UK to Rotterdam in the Netherlands, Hamburg in Germany and Antwerp in Belgium have all experienced ports skipped. 40% of this occurred in Felixstowe, where extensive congestion has been reported. Maersk Line said frankly in October this year that the company is transferring ships from the scheduled port of Felixstowe to other ports in Europe. To compensate for the port skipped, 77 additional calls were added, but usually in smaller European ports. It is expected that this kind of port skipped will continue till in February next year.

Another valuable information is, recently, Container exchange released the industry survey results for 2021-2022. The survey distributed questionnaires to 800 global container logistics companies, including shipping lines, container eqipment dealers, freight forwarders, non-vessel carriers, cargo owners and purchasing companies. The survey found that most respondents are pessimistic about the prospects of the container logistics supply chain in 2022. Among all the interviewees, 11% said that the company’s performance will deteriorate in 2022, while 54% believe that it will remain the same as this year without improvement. The outlook for the container logistics supply chain in 2022 is still pessimistic. However, most companies believe that ocean freight rates are expected to return to normal in the second half of 2022. The current surge in freight rates is caused by insufficient supply of effective capacity due to congestion in US ports. But as the congestion problem eases, it is expected to return to normal in the second half of 2022. However, carriers will still use blank sailings to maintain the balance of space supply & demand, and the freight rates may still be higher level. The cargo owners expect ocean freight to return to the level before 2019, the possibility is negative.

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