By Vincent Wen    Photo：CANVA

Trump has postponed the implementation of a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada for 30 days in exchange for concessions on border security and crime enforcement. However, China has not received a similar grace period, and the new 10% tariff took effect on February 4. In response, China immediately announced tariffs of 10%-15% on U.S. energy, automobiles, agricultural machinery, and more. Additionally, China launched an antitrust investigation into Google and restricted the export of key raw materials. These measures are expected to have a significant impact on American consumers, particularly in consumer electronics such as smartphones, televisions, and computers, as well as toys, jewelry, and sports goods like sneakers—all of which are heavily imported from China. Small U.S. trading companies will struggle to absorb the additional 10% cost, which is likely to be passed on to consumers.

Furthermore, the removal of ' de minimis ' is another key signal. The "de minimis" tariff exemption allows exporters to ship packages valued under $800 to the U.S. without tariffs, a crucial advantage for Chinese e-commerce giants such as Shein, Pinduoduo, and Temu. These companies have expanded their U.S. influence by offering ultra-low prices on clothing, furniture, electronics, and home decor. More than 30% of all "de minimis" shipments to the U.S. come from Temu and Shein, with nearly half originating from China. Initial estimates suggest that international buyers will see an average cost increase of $10 to $20 per order, varying based on customs clearance methods and service models. Trump's decision signals a potential escalation of the U.S.-China trade war in the future.

With the removal of the "de minimis" exemption, more businesses may shift to using overseas warehouses for shipping, transitioning to general trade clearance methods. This would involve routing packages through overseas warehouses for repackaging before final delivery within the U.S., adding an extra one to two days to delivery times and increasing costs. Many cross-border e-commerce companies operate on a low-cost business model, meaning that passing these costs onto consumers could lead to decreased sales. Additionally, shifting large volumes of delivery goods to general trade routes may further drive up shipping prices.

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