By Jennifer Chang      Photo：Austin Zhang

Force flights cancelled and rerouted

The airspace  over Ukraine was closed  and Russia has banned airlines from36 countries from  its airspace have kept airlines flying longer routes. Airlines around the world have been forced to redraw flightpaths for  many routes, connecting airports in Europe and on the east coast of the U.S.  to those in Asia and even cancel many flights after the airspace  over Ukraine was closed and that  over Russia restricted. The ongoing conflict has  complicated  flight plans of many airlines as they also need to avoid overflying  many parts of West Asia. U.S. and European airlines that earlier flew over Ukraine and Russia are now forced to divert flights through southern Asia. Aviation sector experts say this increases flight time and puts pressure on operating costs.

According to an analysis from  an international aviation consultancy, travel routes between the United States, Europe and East Asian countries will increase by hundreds of kilometers and flight times will increase by two to three hours. A remapped round trip between London and Tokyo would also require flying a more southern route over India, or a more northerly route in the direction of Alaska, adding more than two hours of flight time in each direction. That would increase fuel consumption by more than 20 percent and translate into an additional nearly $25,000 in fuel costs for round trips, the analysis said. Rising fuel costs - from higher prices and higher consumption - are expected to force many U.S. and European airlines to temporarily suspend business to the East Asian country. Additional fuel costs aren't the only burden airlines have to shoulder. Longer routes mean airlines have to offer more in-flight crew changes on long-haul flights. Most long-haul flights over 14 hours are handled by two pilots and crew. This additional operating cost is expected to result in many flight cancellations.  According to experts, air cargo rates between US, Europe and East Asia can rise by around 30-50 percent by the end of March when compared to February. The Ukraine-Russia conflict is expected to hit supply chains and reduce cargo capacity. Increased flight times and longer routes will also lead to higher cargo rates, with many US and European airlines including Lufthansa, Virgin Atlantic The company and Finnair, among others, have announced that they will cancel cargo services to Hong Kong and Beijing.

In 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down over Ukrainian airspace, killing all 298 people on board. Since the flight was from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, two-thirds of the passengers on board were Dutch nationals. Before the incident, military planes had been shot down, so some airlines had decided to avoid Ukrainian airspace at that time. The Ukraine war is yet another example of an external event beyond the control of the air cargo industry, but one that has far-reaching consequences, just like the Covid-19 pandemic. The return of passengers remains a big question mark when we consider the airline industry's recovery from the pandemic. The Ukraine war brings up another big question mark, especially with regard to Eurasian trade flows. It is difficult to predict the impact of this on the future.

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