By Vincent Wen    Photo：CANVA

After a period of decline, freight rates have recently shown signs of recovery. Some ports are still experiencing congestion, and certain routes have been adjusted due to geopolitical tensions and weather disruptions. Despite the instability, the market continues to present new opportunities.

1. Current Overview: A Shift in Market Focus

In recent months, consumer demand in mature markets such as the United States has slowed, leading to reduced export activity and weaker shipping volumes on China–US routes.

At the same time, import demand in Southeast Asian countries—including Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines—has continued to rise. Many Chinese exporters are now turning their attention toward these emerging markets, making Southeast Asia one of the key growth regions for shipping in the second half of the year.

Freight rates, which generally declined in the first half of 2025, began to recover during the third quarter. According to international indices such as Drewry’s WCI, major trade lanes saw rate rebounds starting in October. In the short term, rates are expected to remain volatile but more stable than in previous years.

Meanwhile, congestion persists intermittently at several ports in Singapore and along China’s eastern coast. Route changes, labor shortages, and fleet realignments have contributed to delays. For importers and exporters, this means that delivery times remain somewhat uncertain.

2. Key Factors Driving Market Changes in the Second Half of 2025

Global Politics and Trade Policies:

Tensions in U.S.–China relations, tariffs, and export controls continue to shape global trade flows. Any new policy announcements could quickly alter shipping patterns.

Shipping Company Strategies:

Facing fluctuating demand, many carriers are reducing their use of ultra-large container vessels and shifting toward more flexible mid-sized fleets. This allows them to adjust routes and schedules more efficiently.

Port Operations and Weather Conditions:

Extreme weather, labor shortages, or navigational safety issues could create short-term bottlenecks, affecting delivery schedules and driving up logistics costs.

3. Developments on Southeast Asia and China Routes

Southeast Asia:

As more factories relocate to Southeast Asia, trade activity in the region continues to grow. Major ports such as Ho Chi Minh City, Singapore, and Bangkok are seeing higher container throughput.

However, whether local infrastructure can keep up with this growth remains a major challenge. If congestion worsens, it could lead to further delays and rising freight costs.

China:

China’s export structure is shifting. Shipments to the U.S. are declining, while exports to Southeast Asia and other emerging markets are increasing.

This rebalancing is reshaping vessel capacity allocation and port operations along China’s coast. Port efficiency and inland transport connections will directly affect exporters’ delivery reliability.

4. Risks and Opportunities Before Year-End

Potential Risks:

Short-term fluctuations in freight rates.

Ongoing congestion or delays at key ports.

Route disruptions due to geopolitical or security issues.

Weakening demand in major markets such as the U.S. and Europe.

Potential Opportunities:

Strong regional shipping demand as Southeast Asia becomes a supply chain hub.

Greater flexibility and cost advantages through multi-port routing and diverse vessel sizes.

Diversified production and warehousing locations help reduce single-market risk.

5. Recommendations for Businesses

Diversify routes and port choices: Avoid overreliance on a single port or trade lane; plan alternative logistics paths in advance.

Use flexible shipping contracts: Combine short-term and medium-term freight agreements, and monitor global freight indices for timely adjustments.

Revise inventory strategies: Distribute inventory between China and Southeast Asia to reduce the impact of potential shipping delays.

Enhance communication with carriers and forwarders: Maintain real-time information exchange to stay updated on schedule or capacity changes.

Monitor policy and market signals closely: Track tariff updates, export restrictions, and key economic data (such as PMI and export figures) to adjust export strategies proactively.

6. Conclusion

From mid-2025 to the end of the year, the shipping market remains uncertain yet full of potential. Trade between Southeast Asia and China continues to strengthen, signaling a gradual shift toward regional growth.

Companies that stay flexible, diversify risks, and closely monitor market developments will be best positioned to achieve stable and sustainable growth amid global fluctuations.

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