By Eric Huang    Photo：CANVA

On a gloomy morning just before China’s National Day holiday, the massive quay cranes at Shanghai’s Yangshan Deep-Water Port stood like steel sentinels over several container vessels moored along the berths. What was once a bustling stream of trucks feeding containers into the terminal had slowed to a trickle. The rhythm of cargo flows had clearly lost its urgency. Inside the operations center, logistics coordinators stared at their monitors, repeatedly checking sailing schedules. A new notification from a shipping line, sent only two days earlier, popped up again: a scheduled Asia–Europe sailing that week had been cancelled, citing “market conditions.” Behind this familiar phrase lay a crucial tactic that global carriers have increasingly relied on to manage today’s sluggish market—blank sailings.

Over the past year, the global container shipping market has been mired in a prolonged freight rate downturn. Facing weaker demand, chronic overcapacity, and eroding margins, carriers have dusted off and expanded their blank sailing programs—cancelling scheduled departures to trim supply and prop up rates. This is hardly a new strategy, but the scale and frequency with which it is being deployed now far exceed anything seen in previous downcycles. What was once an occasional corrective measure has become a routine operational instrument.

The driving force behind this strategy is a stark supply demand imbalance. According to Container Trade Statistics, volumes on the Asia–Europe trade fell by roughly 7 percent in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year. Trans-Pacific demand has also softened, as U.S. importers front-loaded orders and diversified their sourcing to reduce reliance on China. At the same time, a flood of new megaships ordered during the pandemic boom of 2021–2022 continues to be delivered. Alphaliner estimates that the global container fleet expanded by more than 8 percent in 2024—far outpacing trade growth. The arrival of this capacity glut has further depressed freight rates, which were already hovering near pre-pandemic lows.

In such an environment, carriers have few viable options. Slashing rates to chase cargo would only accelerate market deterioration. Laying up vessels is expensive and inflexible. Slow steaming can absorb some capacity but cannot bridge the gap. By contrast, Blank Sailing offers a fast and flexible way to reduce capacity. Cancelling a single fixed sailing can instantly cut capacity on a trade by about 20 percent, while consolidating bookings onto fewer sailings boosts utilization and saves on bunker fuel, port fees, and operational costs. A blank sailing is more than just skipping a voyage—it is a targeted extraction of supply aimed at stabilizing prices.

For carriers, the logic is straightforward. Running a 24,000-TEU vessel at 50–60 percent utilization rapidly eats into margins, especially with fuel prices still high. Cancelling the voyage and concentrating volumes on other sailings is often more cost-effective than sailing at a loss. More importantly, coordinated blank sailings help carriers maintain a degree of pricing discipline and avoid destructive rate wars—critical in such a fiercely competitive industry.

For shippers and freight forwarders, however, the side effects are significant. Sudden cancellations can create short-term space shortages and cargo rollovers even in a weak market. For supply chains that depend on regular sailing, this uncertainty can be devastating. According to Sea-Intelligence, global schedule reliability stood at only around 53 percent in mid-2025, far below the pre-pandemic level of 75–80 percent. Each blank sailing or port omission can disrupt production schedules and delivery timelines, forcing companies to build longer buffers or explore alternative routes and modes. Exporters of automotive components and fast-moving consumer goods have started diversifying their carrier portfolios or negotiating space protection agreements to mitigate the impact of sudden cancellations.

Despite these disruptions, carriers show no sign of easing up. Many now treat blank sailing as a standard part of their operational toolkit. Their weekly customer advisories are filled with phrases like “service adjustment,” “capacity optimization,” and “network rationalization.” Earlier this year, Hapag-Lloyd announced blank sailings on its FE5 service as part of a “network optimization” initiative aimed at “ensuring overall service quality.” While shippers may disagree with that framing, the message is clear: blank sailing is no longer temporary fixes but integral to carriers’ strategies.

The financial results suggest the approach is working. In Q1 and Q2 2025 earnings, several major carriers reported revenue declines but narrower than expected profit drops. Maersk highlighted that its Ocean segment remained cash-positive, attributing this to blank sailings and slow steaming. CMA CGM credited “dynamic network adjustments” for mitigating revenue pressure. Hapag-Lloyd maintained relatively stable average freight rates despite falling volumes, thanks largely to blank sailing programs. These tactics cannot solve structural overcapacity, but they have bought carriers’ time.

The weeks following Lunar New Year in 2025 were a particularly vivid illustration of this strategy. Ocean Alliance cancelled multiple Asia–Europe sailings: the AE1 service from Shanghai to Rotterdam in week 8, the AE7 departure from Ningbo in week 10, and redeployed the AE10 vessel to an intra-Asia loop in week 12. These actions extended booking lead times but succeeded in preventing spot rates from dipping below USD 1,200 per forty-foot container. Analysts noted that without these cuts, rates could have easily fallen into four-digit territory amid weak European demand.

Another telling case occurred in late 2024. Confronted with insufficient bookings on the Trans-Pacific, MSC cancelled three consecutive sailings, consolidating cargo onto other services. Exporters had to delay shipments, but West Coast rates held steady at USD 1,900–2,000 per FEU. Without these reductions, analysts said, rates might have plunged below USD 1,500—a level that would have meant losses for most carriers on long-haul routes.

The rise of blank sailing underscores the difficult balancing act carriers face in a depressed market. Cancel too few sailings, and rates collapse. Cancel too many, and service reliability deteriorates, risking customer attrition. For now, carriers clearly prefer the latter trade-off: tolerating complaints about unreliable schedules rather than letting rates freefall. The blank sailings of 2025 are not panicked responses—they are deliberate, calculated maneuvers in a challenging new rate environment.

Looking ahead, blank sailings are unlikely to disappear. With more new ships set for delivery in 2025 and 2026 and only modest demand growth expected, carriers will continue to rely on this tool to keep markets in check. If conditions worsen, blank sailings could be paired with more drastic steps like vessel lay-ups or service withdrawals. For shippers, this means accepting a new normal in which published schedules are no longer guaranteed, and flexibility in supply chain planning becomes essential.

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