By Arthur  Photo：flickrpd  Link：Pickupimage

There is a potential chance for a black swan incident pop out again.  Last week, the HMM crew threatened that 453 union members would resign collectively and apply to join its rival MSC if the labor agreement could not be reached. If the strike takes place, HMM's losses may reach a staggering 680 billion won (580 million U.S. dollars). HMM's crew and dock workers expressed dissatisfaction with the "mean" wage increase. The company achieved record profits last year. In the voting on the strike held on August 22, 434 members of the HMM crew union participated in the vote, and 92.1% of the participants supported the strike. HMM sea employees will demand a 25% increase in their wages and receive a bonus equivalent to 1,200% of their wages. However, the Korean Development Bank (KDB), the largest shareholder of HMM, rejected these requirements. The HMM management offered a salary increase of 8% to the labor union, and promised to give 300% bonuses and 200% productivity rewards.

Prior to this, MSC had "pull the legs" on the crew of the HMM. MSC provides HMM seafarers with a salary of 2.5 times that of HMM, provides a monthly salary of 13,000 to 14,000 U.S. dollars to the chief mate, and provides a monthly salary of 5,000 U.S. dollars to the deck crew. If a strike does occur, it will hit South Korea's container shipping capacity as much as Hanjin's collapse. The bankruptcy of Hanjin caused South Korea's container transportation capacity to drop from 1.05 million TEU at the beginning of 2016 to 460,000 TEU at the end of the year. If the HMM, which has a capacity of 850,000 TEU, cannot transport goods due to a strike, the Korean container shipping market will once again be chaotic.

It is said that these crew members are in charge of the operation of 39 ships. If the members of the union formally go on strike, about 81% of HMM's ships will be shut down for unmanned operations.

Busan is South Korea's main container port and the largest container transit hub port in Northeast Asia, take 75% of South Korea's container traffic. Any interruption in HMM operations will have a domino effect on the operations of Busan Port. The operators of Busan Xingang No. 1, No. 3 and No. 4 piers that have signed service contracts with HMM are paying close attention to the negotiations between HMM and the labor union. Yonhap News Agency quoted a terminal operator as saying: "The most worrying thing is that once the crew disembark, the HMM ships entering the port may not be able to operate."

If HMM is paralyzed due to the resignation of the crew or on strike, the 81% of these cargoes may be shipped by SM Line, the only second ocean shipping company in South Korea, and may be able to carry HMM cargo when needed. However, considering the shortage of capacity, SM Line relief capacity is limited. It is to add woods to firing forest in the container transportation industry which is already at short of space and empty containers, and ocean freight has power to push up again. The black swan will fly to sky.